Analysis of June Non-Farm Payrolls: Emerging Headwinds Impacting the Numbers

Money | July 4, 2024, 7:04 p.m.

The latest AI image predicts a consensus estimate of over 190,000 new jobs, with a range from 140,000 to 250,000. May saw an impressive 272,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 185,000. Private payrolls were lower than expected at 160,000 compared to 229,000 in the previous month. Unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.0%, with a participation rate of 62.5%. Average hourly earnings are anticipated to increase by 3.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the prior month. Weekly hours are expected to remain the same at 34.3. Despite some positive indicators, an increase in initial jobless claims to 239,000 signifies potential challenges ahead. The Sahm Rule, which tracks unemployment trends, may become a topic of discussion if rates continue to rise.