Anticipated Friday Jobs Report Indicates Slowed Payroll Growth amid Growing Economic Concerns
Money | July 4, 2024, 3:34 p.m.
The June nonfarm payrolls report is eagerly awaited as signs indicate that the labor market may be slowing down, raising concerns about potential economic weakness ahead. Payroll gains in 2024 are below last year's levels, with economists expecting growth of 200,000 jobs, down from May's 272,000. While job gains are still solid historically, there are underlying indicators of softer conditions and possible economic challenges in the future.
The unemployment rate increased to 4% in May, its highest since January 2022, prompting some economists to monitor the situation closely. The rate's comparison to its 12-month low of 3.5% in July 2023 has triggered concerns of a potential recession, according to the Sahm Rule. This rule suggests that when the unemployment rate exceeds its 12-month low by 0.5%, a recession may be on the horizon. The significance of the upcoming report is heightened by the current economic uncertainties, making it a crucial indicator of future trends.