The Impact of Record Drop in U.S. Housing Affordability on Plummeting Lumber Prices Amid Post-Pandemic Double Bubble 'Hangover'
Money | June 30, 2024, 10:24 a.m.
The once fervent lumber bubble of 2021 and 2022 has burst, with prices dropping dramatically and returning to pre-pandemic levels due to a significant decrease in demand. Record high housing costs and mortgage rates have led to a historic decline in housing affordability, resulting in fewer home buyers and less demand for lumber. The slowdown in home renovations has further contributed to the lack of demand for wood products. Additionally, the rush by lumber mills to increase supply based on overly optimistic demand forecasts has exacerbated the situation, leading to an oversupply in the market. Industry experts predict that lumber prices will remain stagnant near current levels through 2024, with a potential minor increase in the fourth quarter. However, by 2025, factors such as reduced lumber supply and potential interest rate cuts could lead to a rebound in prices.