The Stock Market's Reversal Signals a Major Trade Coming to a Close

Money | July 7, 2024, 4:03 p.m.

The recent "rally" in the S&P 500 may seem confusing, but it is driven by a handful of names pushing the index higher. Traders are engaging in a volatility dispersion trade, leading to surges in Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta. This trade, seen around earnings season, repeats quarterly patterns as implied volatility rises before earnings and falls afterward. The 1-month implied correlation index has hit new lows, indicating weak correlations among S&P 500 companies. This trade is reaching its end due to seasonal cycles. From June 20 to July 5, the Bloomberg 500 saw gains due to this volatility dispersion trade, with particular stocks driving the market higher each week. This rotation among mega-cap stocks is strategic and expected, explaining the recent market movements and the reasoning behind them.