US Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasted to Worsen, Impacting Global Economy

Money | July 10, 2024, 8:15 a.m.

Distressed investors are eyeing a prime opportunity in the troubled US real estate market, with $1 trillion of debt linked to commercial real estate set to mature this year. Private equity firms are gearing up to capitalize on the deep discounts in the US, where office values fell by almost a quarter last year. However, this focus on North America may leave other regions with fewer buyers, potentially dragging down property values in Europe and Asia. Lenders are pulling back from commercial real estate due to rising borrowing costs and plummeting values, creating a gap of almost $150 billion between loan volumes and credit availability. As the US braces for a significant real estate distressed investment cycle, concerns are mounting over the future of regional banks heavily exposed to real estate debt. While the US market remains attractive, the overall pool of private equity capital for commercial real estate has shrunk, posing challenges for credit investors.