The recent US NFP report revealed softer than expected numbers, with a decrease in the 3-month moving average of employment gains and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. Despite this, there has been an increase in prime-working age employment, showing a divergence between unemployment and employment trends. The increase in unemployment has been attributed to new entrants and re-entrants into the job market, rather than a decline in employment. This has led to concerns about the potential for a recession, although there have been positive indicators such as stable average weekly hours and wage growth. However, the rise in long-term unemployment rates is a cause for worry. As the Federal Reserve considers rate cuts, the risk of a recession looms, especially if they act too late. Ultimately, the uncertainty of the economic landscape remains, echoing the cautionary wisdom of Sir John Templeton about the danger of assuming "this time it's different."